SIMARD REALTY GROUP
  • Home
  • About
    • Testimonials
    • Contact
    • My home selling system
  • Home Search
    • Free Home Inspection
    • Financing
    • Mortgage Calculator
  • Listings
    • Open Houses
    • New Listings
    • Sold Homes >
      • Sold Homes
    • Listings Blog
  • Home Value
  • Resources
    • Real Estate Advice
    • Market Data
    • Granby CT >
      • Granby area photos
    • East Granby CT
    • Simsbury CT
    • Avon CT
    • Canton CT
    • New Hartford
    • Barkhamsted
    • Bloomfield
    • Suffield
    • West Hartford
    • Western MA >
      • Westfield MA
      • Southwick MA
      • Agawam MA
  • New Listings and Price Reductions
  • News and updates
  • Promo Videos

Will Surging Unemployment Crush Home Sales?

4/6/2020

0 Comments

 
Picture
Ten million Americans lost their jobs over the last two weeks. The next announced unemployment rate on May 8th is expected to be in the double digits. Because the health crisis brought the economy to a screeching halt, many are feeling a personal financial crisis. James Bullard, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, explained that the government is trying to find ways to assist those who have lost their jobs and the companies which were forced to close (think: your neighborhood restaurant). In a recent interview he said:

“This is a planned, organized partial shutdown of the U.S. economy in the second quarter. The overall goal is to keep everyone, households and businesses, whole.”

That’s promising, but we’re still uncertain as to when the recently unemployed will be able to return to work.

Another concern: how badly will the U.S. economy be damaged if people can’t buy homes?
A new concern is whether the high number of unemployed Americans will cause the residential real estate market to crash, putting a greater strain on the economy and leading to even more job losses. The housing industry is a major piece of the overall economy in this country.

Chris Herbert, Managing Director of the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University, in a post titled Responding to the Covid-19 Pandemic, addressed the toll this crisis will have on our nation, explaining:

“Housing is a foundational element of every person’s well-being. And with nearly a fifth of US gross domestic product rooted in housing-related expenditures, it is also critical to the well-being of our broader economy.”

How has the unemployment rate affected home sales in the past?
It’s logical to think there would be a direct correlation between the unemployment rate and home sales: as the unemployment rate went up, home sales would go down, and when the unemployment rate went down, home sales would go up.
​
However, research reviewing the last thirty years doesn’t show that direct relationship, as noted in the graph below. The blue and grey bars represent home sales, while the yellow line is the unemployment rate. Take a look at numbers 1 through 4:
Picture
  1. The unemployment rate was rising between 1992-1993, yet home sales increased.
  2. The unemployment rate was rising between 2001-2003, and home sales increased.
  3. The unemployment rate was rising between 2007-2010, and home sales significantly decreased.
  4. The unemployment rate was falling continuously between 2015-2019, and home sales remained relatively flat.

The impact of the unemployment rate on home sales doesn’t seem to be as strong as we may have thought.

Isn’t this time different?
Yes. There is no doubt the country hasn’t seen job losses this quickly in almost one hundred years. How bad could it get? Goldman Sachs projects the unemployment rate to be 15% in the third quarter of 2020, flattening to single digits by the fourth quarter of this year, and then just over 6% percent by the fourth quarter of 2021. Not ideal for the housing industry, but manageable.

How does this compare to the other financial crises?
​
Some believe this is going to be reminiscent of The Great Depression. From the standpoint of unemployment rates alone (the only thing this article addresses), it does not compare. Here are the unemployment rates during the Great Depression, the Great Recession, and the projected rates moving forward:
Picture
Bottom LineWe’ve given you the facts as we know them. The housing market will have challenges this year. However, with the help being given to those who have lost their jobs and the fact that we’re looking at a quick recovery for the economy after we address the health problem, the housing industry should be fine in the long term. Stay safe.


SOURCE KCM
#Forsellers #Forbuyers #HousingMarketUpdates #SimardRealtyGroup #eXpRealty

0 Comments



Leave a Reply.

    Need immediate assistance? Call 860-919-0991

    Archives

    January 2021
    December 2020
    November 2020
    October 2020
    September 2020
    August 2020
    July 2020
    June 2020
    May 2020
    April 2020
    March 2020
    February 2020
    January 2020
    December 2019
    November 2019
    October 2019
    September 2019
    August 2019
    July 2019
    June 2019
    May 2019
    April 2019
    March 2019
    February 2019
    January 2019
    December 2018
    November 2018
    October 2018
    September 2018
    August 2018
    July 2018
    June 2018
    May 2018
    April 2018
    March 2018
    February 2018
    January 2018
    December 2017
    November 2017
    October 2017
    September 2017
    August 2017
    July 2017
    June 2017
    May 2017
    April 2017
    March 2017
    February 2017
    January 2017
    December 2016
    November 2016
    October 2016
    September 2016
    August 2016
    July 2016
    June 2016
    May 2016
    April 2016
    March 2016
    December 2015
    December 2013
    November 2013
    October 2013
    September 2013
    July 2013

    Categories

    All
    2014
    Best Real Estate Agent Granby
    Cma
    Farmington
    Farmington Valley
    Flat Fee Mls
    Forclosure
    For Sale By Owner
    Granby
    Home Buying
    Home Selling
    Home Sold
    How Much Is My Home Worth
    How Much Is My House Worth
    Listing Agent
    Market Anaylsis
    Property Value
    Short Sale
    Simsbury
    Stephen Simard
    Suffield
    West Hartford

    RSS Feed

The House Sold Name.​

Stephen Simard REALTOR

Picture

Contact Us

Phone: (860) 919-0991
Granby Office
16R East Granby Rd
Granby CT 06035
​——-
​
Broker address: Real Broker CT, LLC
​27 W. 24th St., Suite 407, New York, NY, 10010
​Lic in CT & MA
Click to set custom HTML
About  |  ​Testimonials  |  New Listings  |  Open Houses  |  Sold Home  |  Resources
Webdesign: PluginMuse
  • Home
  • About
    • Testimonials
    • Contact
    • My home selling system
  • Home Search
    • Free Home Inspection
    • Financing
    • Mortgage Calculator
  • Listings
    • Open Houses
    • New Listings
    • Sold Homes >
      • Sold Homes
    • Listings Blog
  • Home Value
  • Resources
    • Real Estate Advice
    • Market Data
    • Granby CT >
      • Granby area photos
    • East Granby CT
    • Simsbury CT
    • Avon CT
    • Canton CT
    • New Hartford
    • Barkhamsted
    • Bloomfield
    • Suffield
    • West Hartford
    • Western MA >
      • Westfield MA
      • Southwick MA
      • Agawam MA
  • New Listings and Price Reductions
  • News and updates
  • Promo Videos